In the previous round of the Capital One Cup our Football League analyst George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL) provided you with a healthy profit, finding value in the BTTS market. He looks towards tonight’s cup action once again with optimism, hoping to bounce back from the last minute setback suffered at the weekend.
Whilst many back away from betting on the League Cup I actually relish the challenge. Firstly poor old Ten-fold Terry doesn’t have enough games tonight to hopelessly chase that elusive get out of jail free card, and more importantly it really puts my skills as a bettor to the test, pitting the credentials of two sides in different leagues together is a real challenge. One could argue that the League Cup provides some of the best value out there, as the bookmakers are as dubious as we are when approaching the fixtures. Squad rotation is rife which many people think devalues the competition and thus we have no idea of knowing the performance levels of the fringe players, are they motivated? will they try too hard to impress? what’s their attitude like? Take for instance the wrong attitude and underlying spite at not being selected, this can result in poor performances and thus change the expected outcome of the match in question.
I’ve done some research into finding out some of the manager’s philosophies behind team selection for tonight and have noticed Swansea priced at 6/4 (William Hill) to overcome Hull, despite a clear intention from Steve Bruce to give some of the fringe players a run out. The Tigers have battled their way through 3 games in the space of 7 days, earning a half decent 4 points, and were notably weary in their last run-out. The Swans are comparatively fresh and Garry Monk has outlined his plans of fielding a good strength side. The 36 year old made 11 changes in the last round versus York for a 3-0 victory, but will not be taking this game lightly, revealing that “whatever team I select it is to win the game” when speaking to the Daily Mail.
‘They’ve started the league very well, they’re a strong outfit and retained quite a few of their players from when they were in the Premier League, so it will be a tough night for us – but one that we’ll try to be positive and get a good result.’ – Garry Monk
The Swans did indeed complete the double over Hull in the Premier League last season, with a convincing 3-1 home victory nicely followed up with a 1-0 win at the KC Stadium, so I’m keen to place my money on the Welsh outfit to continue this trend. The Capital One Cup winners of 2013 will see this as their most likely chance of silverware this season and with that victory fresh in the memory I can only envisage good spirits when travelling up the Highway to Hull for tonight’s match. Mentality plays a major role in all aspects of life and especially football, as just last month we saw QPR knocked out by League Two minnows Carlisle to make it 8 opening round exits in their previous 11 attempts. These shortcomings are likely to have swarmed the subconscious mindset of the team and negatively affect their performance levels, which in this case appears to be the exact opposite for Premier League’s 7th placed side.
Swansea City WIN @ 2.5* (William Hill) – 2 PT STAKE