It’s been 8 winners out of his last 18 bets at odds ranging from Evs – 11/1 for Football League betting advisor George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL)! He hopes to continue an incredible run of form that has seen winners at 17/2, 7/2, 7/2 and more with his look at the value in tonight’s Johnstone’s Paint Trophy.
Michael Appleton’s organised Oxford outfit are simply killing it at present. The U’s sit atop the League Two standings after 6 wins (5 without conceding) and 2 draws from their last 8, facing up against a rock-bottom Yeovil side tonight who will surely have one eye on Saturday. These two sides have already met this season with a comfortable 2-0 victory going in favour of the U’s, restricting Yeovil to just 1 shot on target all game. Oxford are priced as a skinny 4/9 favourite for tonight’s game, a price that doesn’t interest me at all. However, I’m very confident they will win so in games such as these I will try to find any angle I can to seek value.
The Glovers have stumbled into the last 8 via two surprise penalty shoot-out victories over Coventry and Gillingham but considering Oxford’s imperious home performances this is likely a step too far for them. Interim boss Darren Way will surely have to prioritise Football League survival for his Yeovil side, who face Barnet (19th) on Saturday before a brutal run of games versus Leyton Orient (8th), Plymouth (2nd) & Oxford (1st). Way will no doubt recognise the importance of Saturday’s match and the need to keep up with York and Dagenham & Redbridge. A relatively fortunate 1-0 FA Cup win over Stevenage at the weekend throws another spanner into the works as Way will be unlikely to be thrilled with the idea of fixtures to risk fatigue and injuries considering the fight on their hands to avoid relegation.
Oxford have seen a lot of sides try and swamp them in midfield recently to stop them playing football, which may be the reason they have failed to break the deadlock before the 70th minute in any of their last 4 fixtures. That being said The U’s ground out 3 1-0 victories in that timeframe and simply don’t look like conceding much at the Kassam Stadium. In their last 8 home games Oxford have conceded an average of just 2.75 shots on target per game, which coupled with their impressive stat of conceding from just 26.23% of shots on target against them, means we could expect 0.72 goals from an average opponent based on current form. However Yeovil have offered an average of just 1.625 shots on target over the course of their last 8 away games, which offers a paltry 0.43 expected goals total for today’s game. Oxford’s form of 12 wins out of their last 16 tells you all you need to know about this one, I’m expecting a routine 1-0 or 2-0 home win. The 8/1 (Coral) about on Oxford to win the JPT is also worth having a look at, I’d be extremely surprised if they don’t go through and thus getting an 8/1 offering (11% implied prob.) on a 4 horse race with the form Oxford are in very much screams value.
Oxford Utd 1-0 CORRECT SCORE @ 6/1 (PaddyPower/William Hill)
Oxford Utd 2-0 CORRECT SCORE @ 6/1 (888sport/UniBet)
Recommended Ante-post Bets:
Oxford Utd Johnstone’s Paint Trophy WINNER @ 8/1 (Coral)