Football League analyst George Sandford (@EuroEliteFL) ruthlessly took the bookmakers for a +11pt profit haul on Tuesday night as Exeter triumphed at huge odds in both the win and ‘btts & win’ markets. He currently commands an ROI of 60.84% for the season thanks to a whole host of long odds winners. Forget the short priced favourites you see ‘tipped’ elsewhere as George knows where the real potential for long term profit lies. Here’s his look at the big value to be had across the weekend’s fixture list.
Winning is an incredible feeling and obviously what we’re in this business for. However, I’ve found that it can also be a curse at times. We must not become complacent and lose our focus as this is only going to damage our profit total for the season. We have to remain in the present – another game week and another opportunity to smash the bookies whilst so many fritter away their cash. It’s like a constant tug of war between the bookmakers and the ‘acca brigade’: when the punters pull too hard the markets can be profitable as the bookies want to cover their backs. A perfect example of this was my winning 15/11 selection on Charlton +0.5 on Saturday. Percy Punter looks at that game and automatically thinks “Derby are decent and that lad Martin should do a job, let’s chuck them in my 10-fold”, and there’s 100,000+ of these people thinking exactly the same thing. The bookmakers decided to offer Derby at 4/6 – we know better. Informed investments > gut feelings all day every day.
League Two has been extremely lucrative for us over the last 2 gameweeks having landed winners at 5/1, 19/10 and 17/10 odds. A common philosophy in football of never changing a winning team seems fitting so once again we’ll look towards the UK’s bottom tier of league football for value. One game in particular that I’ve taken a liking to sees AFC Wimbledon make the long trip up north to Carlisle. Both sides have made unconvincing starts to the season and will be looking to this fixture as an opportunity to propel themselves back up the table.
Carlisle are shipping goals for fun at the minute having leaked 4 goals in their 389 mile midweek trip to Plymouth, which followed on from a 4-4 draw at home against Cambridge Utd. Their best defender, Troy Archibald-Henville, has been plagued with injuries over the last couple of seasons and is currently being left out of Keith Curle’s plans, the manager preferring to opt for consistency in his team selections. We saw a performance in midweek fraught with defensive errors despite many spells of hard pressing attacking football, culminating in 8 corners and 11 shots, of which 7 were on target. Considering that the League Two average for shots on target away from home was just 3.7/game last season it goes without saying that Curle’s side is one that has the potential to score a bucketload of goals, boding well for their game at the weekend against an AFC Wimbledon side who haven’t kept a clean sheet on their travels since February 2015. When looking for value in the ‘btts & win’ market we must look for sides who are both threatening going forward that also possess a tendency to concede easily. Carlisle tick both of those boxes having netted 7 times and conceded 5 from their 2 home games this season, with new acquisition Jabo Ibehre (below), no doubt brimming with confidence having netted 6 goals from 3 appearances.
Interestingly the two sides have a history of high scoring games: this fixture last season saw a 4-4 draw and the reverse tie saw Carlisle run out 3-1 winners at Kingsmeadow. In their home game Carlisle had the upper hand for the majority of the match having lead 4-2 with 10 minutes to go, but an 81st minute red card and conceded penalty left the game hanging dangerously in the balance, followed by an inevitable equaliser in the dying moments of the game. High scoring games weren’t exactly few and far between for Carlisle last season, in fact no ground in League Two was host to more goals than Brunton Park in 2014/15 (72 goals in 23 games). 7 of Carlisle’s 23 home games resulted in O3.5 goals (30.4%) and if we compare that to a quoted price of 11/4 on 4 or more goals, which works out at a 26.6% implied probability, there appears to be a nice slice of value when coupled with the goalscoring history between the two sides. Carlisle are unbeaten at home since7th March and I believe that they will bounce back from Tuesday night’s set back to prove too strong for AFC Wimbledon. The Cumbrians were just a couple of minutes from the ‘btts and win’ double over their opponents last year so I’m prepared to vouch that 17/4 offered on them completing the same feat is just too good to refuse. Due to the high likelihood of goals I’ll also be hedging somewhat to reduce the variance that we encounter, so 18/5 for a ‘btts & draw’ outcome seems more than reasonable as some cover.
Carlisle Utd v AFC Wimbledon OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 3.75 (BetVictor) – 1.5 PT STAKE
Carlisle Utd WIN & BTTS @ 5.25 (BetVictor) – 1.25 PT STAKE
Carlisle Utd v AFC Wimbledon DRAW & BTTS @ 4.6 (BetVictor) – 0.75 PT STAKE